/// RIM Revival Rebutted

November 27, 2012  |  All Things Digital

The recent bout of stock-market optimism that’s lifted Research In Motion’s shares more than 50 percent over the past 30 days, while a nice change of pace from the year-long bloodletting that preceded it, may prove ill advised in the months ahead. In fact, it may be one of the last rallies RIM’s stock sees for some time. That’s the bear take on the sudden upswell of goodwill that’s buoyed RIM shares back into the $11 range. Its gist, as encapsulated by Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum: RIM’s better-than-expected second quarter earnings were an anomaly and not the beginning of a trend, BlackBerry 10 probably isn’t going to save the company and this winter rally that’s got investors so juiced will be short-lived. “We continue to believe BlackBerry 10 has a low chance of success,” Gelblum said. “While some of the new features on BB10 seem innovative, we had a similar reaction to Palm’s WebOS when we saw it at CES in ‘09. Ultimately we believe BB10 is too late, and subs continue to shift to competitive devices.” Gelblum notes a few troubling stats to support his argument. The first, a mid-October global mobile workforce survey that found only 5 percent of respondents expecting to upgrade to a new BlackBerry. The second, an August IDC survey of 5,526 enterprise app developers that found that the number of devs who professed to be “very interested” in BlackBerry apps had fallen to 9 percent from 40 percent. Neither of those findings are surprising.

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RIM Revival Rebutted

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